With the new year having just started, there is plenty of possibility to see from the state of the gaming industry at large heading into 2019, as we’ve seen from one of The NPD Groups analysts sharing their thoughts on the state of gaming sales in the new year.
The NPD Group analyst Mat Piscatella shared his early thoughts and predictions for what may lie ahead for 2019 in terms of video game hardware and software sales for the year in the US.
Specifically, Piscatella expects that the Nintendo Switch will see the biggest growth through the year, and would most likely be the market leader for 2019 compared to its competing platforms, the PS4 and Xbox One. Piscatella’s predictions put the Switch at reaching “more than 35 share of hardware unit sales in the US in 2019,” noting that its sales success is likely to be driven by Pokemon (presumably the next mainline installments expected later this year) and “continued strength of Nintendo’s evergreen franchises.”
By comparison, he expects that 2019 “could be a bumpy year” for Sony and Microsoft as far as PS4 and Xbox One sales, primarily because of the “predicted 2020 next-gen” debut for both companies’ next pieces of console hardware.
In addition to Piscatella’s predictions on hardware sales for the year, he also shared that some of the trends that he expects to see emerge in 2019 revolve around digital game purchases, subscription services, and socially-oriented gaming experiences. Piscatella expected a higher growth in digital content purchases for 2019, while also noting he predicts rapid growth for subscription services on gaming platforms that could accelerate throughout the year, likely driven by services such as Xbox Game Pass.
While Piscatella will give a more detailed breakdown later this month, these quick, bite-sized observations still set some insight on what to expect heading into the new year, and make some sense as far as the current landscape among hardware sales for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo at this stage.
2019 US Predictions – Spending on digital content to account for 90% of total content spending – According to NPD’s GMD report, 86% of content was sold digitally across all platforms (incl mobile) by 12 months ending Q3 ’18. Digital growth should force more share to shift.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions – In console hardware, Switch grows, leads market – I have Switch achieving more than 35 share of hardware unit sales in the US in 2019, with Pokémon and continued strength of Nintendo’s evergreen franchises driving the performance.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions – Subscription spending continues to rapidly grow – More services, more consumer choice, as well as deeper and broader offerings will allow subscription spending growth to accelerate throughout the year.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions – ’18 success will lead to tough comps in console SW – 2018 was a remarkable year of titles released from some of the most successful franchises and studios. Many months in 2019 will fail to have the breadth and depth of content offerings, leading to declines.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions – More focus on facilitating social hangouts in games -Making it easy for friends to play together has been a success driver for some recent games. Titles that focus on making that experience great should return higher sales and engagement than if they did not
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions – Streaming offerings outpace consumer adoption – There are huge incentives for companies to go streaming, and ’19 will bring many announcements. But consumer adoption will come slowly. I expect a lot of noise in 2019, with little short-term consumer payoff.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
TL;DR – 2019 will be a year of significant change and transition in gaming, and we should not expect to see the kind of growth we’ve seen in 2018. Switch will pull ahead in Console as we move to predicted 2020 next gen for MS/Sony. Could be a bumpy year.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
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