Senate ratings show three Democrats in toss-up races These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Latest Polls | FiveThirtyEight We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Sen. Ron Johnson faces Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes in - CNBC Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Pandemic Politics: Red state governors are in trouble for their Covid So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Trump is quite unpopular here. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Wisconsin Senate - Johnson vs. Barnes - RealClearPolitics We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. GOP Voters "Sour" on Senate Republicans As The 2022 Cycle Begins I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. Cmon! 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. How Every Senator Ranks According To 'Popularity Above Replacement Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . RCP Senate Ratings, Map. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Partisan Lean (5). Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Have questions? Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. 2023 3 round NFL mock draft: Tyler Forness' 3.0 Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Sen. Ron Johnson: Straight from the horse's mouth Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. Lt. Gov. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). All rights reserved. A. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Hi. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. Ronald Reagan From the People's Perspective: A Gallup Poll Review Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. The Supreme Court Not So Much. The poll is hardly an outlier. Science - Volume 379 Issue 6628, 13 January 2023 | PDF - scribd.com Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Gerald Ford 1974-77. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM | eBay With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. 8/25/21 - Quinnipiac University Poll George H.W. This includes Sens. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has early lead in Democratic Senate The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Cyber Security: Private-sector Efforts Addressing Cyber Threats That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). New Marquette Law School Poll survey of - Marquette University The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Voters do not. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. R+23. Buy It Now. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Youre ridiculous. He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is poised to win Tuesday's primary. His Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. Ron Johnson pursues a scorched-earth path to reelection Perhaps the biggest news in the poll is the rise of Michels, who announced his run for governor in late April, too late to be included in the April MU p0ll which last measured the governors race. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Top 10 U.S. Senate races that are most likely to flip : NPR Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Yes. Gov. DeSantis' Net Approval Rating Drops 14 Points Amid - Forbes The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. Price: US $0.99. . Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Murphy's Law: Which Democrat Can Beat Ron Johnson? Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Share: Listen Download. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Previewing the Next NYT/Siena Poll - The New York Times 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. United States presidential approval rating - Wikipedia RCP House Ratings, Map. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year.