Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Were a service industry-oriented area. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. I think it worked out without me.. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Republican Gov. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. People need to get a job, get out and work. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Weve never done that before.. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. And we just want that to continue. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. At least Biden is honest, he said. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Here's why. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. What happened to our Democratic Party? His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Your email address will not be published. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. We need election reform.. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. That is, until this year. He considers Trump pro-life. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. She shook her head at the high price of gas. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. List of election bellwether counties in the United States In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. And its never going to come back.. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. I think its very political right now, honestly. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. . Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine bellwether - Political Dictionary Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. County Legislature Approves Revised $75 Million ARPA Spending Plan But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Bellwether - Wikipedia Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. bellwether counties epoch times I hope.. On . Two states have announced recounts. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Election Results 2014: The Bellwethers - The New York Times On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. He pissed off a lot of people. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Port Clinton, Ohio. It was easy. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. I dont listen to the news. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. He isnt so sure about Biden. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Two states have announced recounts. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. We believe that there are two main reasons. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR He cares about the American people.. I believe in a time cycle. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Pre-performance Lobby events. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims