But when will it really start? Geiger said the almanac predicts snow this winter in northern Arizona between Nov. 20 and 23, and snow in higher elevation areas would continue into early December. This ranks as the 5th warmest monsoon on record, tied with 2011. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. That means that La Nina is NOT controlling the current weather pattern for the season thus far. Odds are tilted toward a colder than average winter from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to northern New England. Thank you! The average Fall temperature of 71.3 is 1.0 below the 1991-2020 normal. But if it weakens, that could spell a colder winter for some. There should be no reason you shouldnt be informed. Crawford's expectation for a stronger polar vortex this coming winter implies colder air will overall be bottled up in more northern latitudes. Every year, the Farmers Almanac, which has been printed since 1818, attempts to answer that question with weather predictions based on generations of perception, experience, and common sense, according to its website. The first eight days of the month were on the quiet side before turning active between the 9th and 13th thanks to deeper tropical moisture moving across the area from Hurricance Kay, which moved northwest off the Baja Coast. The average yearly temperature, through the end of August, of 73.5 is 1.0 above normal and ranks as the 6th warmest on record. Much of the nation's midsection, including the Mississippi Valley, northern Gulf Coast, Florida and the West Coast, should be near or slightly warmer than average in December. Enter any city, zip or place. We are going to show you their forecast for the upcoming winter, but first, a warning. 2022 monsoon season in Arizona expected to be above-normal - good news for state agriculture . It begins just at the backend. #azwx #cawx https://t.co/G7FkHhFGSt. On the precipitation side, the forecast leaned toward below normal at a 45% chance. This is the third February in the last four years that the average monthly temperature was below normal. Overall, the almanac says it will be wetter than normal, the precipitation beginning in October and extending right through November. Areas from the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and mountain West are most favored to see above-average temperatures for the entire three-month winter period from December through February, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. You also get the member section, which has controllable models like rain, wind, snow, in high resolution along with a GPS feature which is updated when an event is in the area This is the highest wind gust, tied with August 11, 1995, to be recorded at the airport in the past 50 years. RELATED: Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area which is always the case during the summer thunderstorm season. Gilbert teen's dream comes true as he takes the field, Suspected drunk driver dies after crashing into Tempe bus stop, police say, Wet weather forces SRP to release water from Bartlett Dam, La Nina is here and it's not good news for Arizona's drought, Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. No matter which part of Arizona youre from (or plan to visit), winter is a great time to arrive. including sunrise/sunset and moon phases. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 36% chance that they will end up above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. Even though our winter is forecast to be on the mild side, it won't be without a few cold spells. No matter which part of Arizona youre from (or plan to visit), winter is a great time to arrive. You can enjoy epic winter activities like Arizona Snow Bowl, and you can even go sledding iFarmers' Almanac winter forecastn Arizona (or snow tubing in Arizona) too. If youre planning to visit Arizona in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arizona before you arrive. Questions? Add the current city. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded only 0.81" which is around a half an inch below normal and ranks as the 53rd driest September on record, tied with 1949. hit 113.9 degrees F, 45.5 degrees C. Amazing. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area with totals ranging from 0.20" to 1.75" with localized higher amounts to 2.50". Monsoon 2022 ended up warmer than normal with an average season temperature of 87.2 which is nine-tenths of a degree above normal. Youll definitely want to check out some of our favorite, We say absolutely! temperatures from Washington and northern . Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. By contrast, much of the southern third of the nation from the Southwest into the Southern Plains, Southeast and Florida is expected to have a warmer-than-average January. The new year began on a wet note when a winter storm impacted the area as the calendar turned from 2021 to 2022. Above normal moisture values for early October combined with several atmospheric disturbances moving across the area produced isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on a daily basis during the first ten days of the month. 12News+ showcases live video throughout the day for breaking news, local news, weather and even an occasional moment of Zen showcasing breathtaking sights from across Arizona. June climate data across southeast Arizona, Summer climate data across southeast Arizona. Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2023. On your streaming device:Download 12News+ to your streaming device. Officially the Tucson International airport recorded 1.82", which is around eight-tenths of an inch below normal and ranks as the 48th driest Winter season on record. Arizona weather in January 2024 The temperatures in Arizona in January are quite cold with temperatures between 48F and 66F, warm clothes are a must. The 2021-22 water year ended up on the dry side with 6.97" being reported at the airport. For comparison through the end of March, the current climate normal period (1991-2020) average temperature is 57.4 while the previous climate normal period (1981-2010) average temperature was 56.1. The silver lining is that when warmer weather finally does arrive, we'll be even more grateful for it. Temperature: Below Average, WANT MORE? If you hear rain or anything is coming to the area. If you're planning to visit Arizona in the near . Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 0.10" to 0.75 ". Over the next 10 days high temperatures gradually warmed through the 60's into the 70's peaking on the 27th with a monthly high temperature of 79. Then it smashed that record. Five record high minimum (low) temperatures were set or tied during the month. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 0.19" which ranks as the 29th driest March on record, tied with 1949 & 1966. This month the airport recorded 9 days which is the highest amount dating back to 1948. In the U.S., La Nia typically means a colder than average winter in northern and western parts of the country, and a warmer South and East. Amounts ranged from 1.00" to 4.50" with localized amounts up to 6.50". The newest edition of the 230-year-old series projects the 2021-22 winter as a particularly cold one, dubbing it the "season of shivers." The almanac's editor, Janice Stillman, says it could even . The forecast for precipitation is a 33% chance that they will be up below normal and a 33% chance that they will end up above normal. The forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. If you are NOT receiving the e-mails and are a full member, your account is either expired or you need to troubleshoot. By Paul Rusnak | September 11, 2022. Nov. 17, 2022 Finally. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 35% chance that they will end up above normal and a 32% chance that they will end up below normal. This led to isolated areas of heavy rain and flash flooding along with hail. Colder weather is predicted to come in between Nov. 16 and 19 and settle in for good come Nov. 24 to 27. Winter in Arizona is always a mixed bag. According to its forecast map, Arizonas fall theme will be cool with decent precipitation.. The Tucson International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, has recorded 1.80" which is four-tenths of an inch below normal and ranks as the 57th driest first quarter of the water year on record. Which City Is the Worst for Fall Allergies This Year? If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. According to its forecast map, Arizona's fall theme will be cool with "decent precipitation." Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers' Almanac, said there wasn't much particularly interesting. After a week of travel, a bout with a head cold, and a new A-fib diagnosis, hiked some beautiful country with the Britts. Blistering, Record-Breaking Heat Lytton, B.C. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 111 on June 16th to a low of 66 on June 5th. Kristin Murphy, Deseret News Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 111 on the 16th to a low of 66 on the 5th. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, has varied widely across the metro area. Even as we swelter through the last stretch of summer's "dog days," the upcoming winter outlooks for the 2022-2023 season from the Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmer's Almanac are enough to send shivers down one's spine. Southern Arizona is a mixed bag in the winter sometimes you can get a nice, mild winter or a chilly, snowy one! The monthly average temperature of 89.1 is 3.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 5th warmest June on record. That's more in line with what's typically expected in La Nia winters. A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. BOOKMARK THE MAIN WEBSITE BY CLICKING HERE. The official start of fall is only about a month away, with the Autumn Equinox on Sept. 22. Phoenix Weather Forecast for November 2022 is based on . The table below shows the breakdown for highs, low maximums and high minimums. Whether the polar vortex stays strong or weakens at some point in winter can definitely impact the forecast. All rights reserved. The MAIN PAGE of this website has every alert/article issued at current. Officially, 7.41" of rain was recorded at the International airport which ranks, in the 128 year climatic record period (1895-2022) for Tucson, as the 13th driest year on record. Click on the images below for larger view. January climate data across southeast Arizona. This ranks as the 11th driest Spring on record. Ninety-nine percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought with more than half of the state experiencing an Exceptional drought, which is the worst level. Multiple locations were found. Desert biome, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. the . The temperatures in Arizona in February are comfortable with low of 11 C and and high up to 21 C.. Winter is a great time to hike the Grand Canyon (just be careful of ice), and its also a fun time to go camping in the milder central and southern parts of the state. The water year is well below normal since October 1st at 2.03" which ranks as the 8th driest water year to date with four months left in the water year calendar. BOOKMARK THE MAIN WEBSITE BY CLICKING HERE. We know that finding the ideal hotel in Arizona can be a hard task Thats why we run our special tools and found the best hotels in Arizona. It is certainly a possibility with the threat of another La Nia on the horizon. The forecast for precipitation is a 45% chance that they will be above normal and a 22% chance that they will end up below normal. The February outlook for the area, issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 31st, called for a 47% chance that temperatures would be above normal & 20% chance that temperatures would be below normal. Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. As usual, the polar vortex is another important wild card in the outlook. Some of our favorite winter destinations in Arizona include the adorable little town of Flagstaff, the amazing Mount Lemmon in southern Arizona (the drive up alone is incredible), and mountain towns like Payson and Prescott. National Weather Service There are other puzzle pieces besides La Nia to consider in the forecast, which leads us to the next question. Above-normal precipitation is forecast in part of the Ohio Valley, an area that could pick up above-normal snowfall if temperatures remain low enough. "Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods," NOAA said. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a La Nia Watch on Thursday for the potential re-emergence of La Nia conditions by the fall. Weather Forecast Office. Areas south of the storm track (much of the Southeast) will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix . NWS Thanks to the new warmer 30-year climate normals, which went into effect last year, the average yearly temperature this year through the end of March is below normal although it was warmer than two years ago (56.8 vs 56.5). Visit the Farmers Almanac website or Facebook page to learn more about the forecast. The stream has the latest alert links, a map of alerts and where, and articles. The upcoming El-Nino phase should make problems with drought mainly in the grain and corn belt in the USA in the second half of the season in 2022 and in 2023, while the Agriculture stress index in the southern USA should be more favorable, contrary to the years 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022. Saturday marks the peak of the warming trend and temperatures will slowly decline throughout the next week. The periodical says it. It will definitely seem like it in January though, but we still have February, March, and April left, that of which can easily add more storms into the forecast. On the 6th, the 20th & 21st and the 28th & 29th. The official start of fall is only about a month away, with the Autumn Equinox on Sept. 22. Backed by the 5th warmest June and 7th warmest July and the warmest Summer average low temperature on record (tied with 2020), Summer 2022 goes into the record books asthe 3rd warmest Summer on record, tied with the Summers of 2013, 2015 & 2019. The forecast panned out well for precipitation as it was drier than normal while February came in cooler than normal thanks to the average monthly low temperature being 4.7 below normal. AccuWeather's winter forecast. May climate data across southeast Arizona. As is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 3.00" to 9.00" with localized amounts between 9" and 11" along the lower elevations of the Catalina and Rincon mountains. Here in the Valley, showers will be off and on throughout overnight. Please select one of the following: Tucson, AZ Standard Radar (low bandwidth), NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Global Warming Begins at the Poles - Ends at the Poles 2022-2024. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 4.13" which ranks as the 52nd driest Summer on record. ARIZONA WEATHER FORCE MAIN: Arizona Weather Force Office Main Page For updates. You'll receive your first newsletter soon! Reach breaking news reporter Sam Burdette at [email protected] or on Twitter @SuperSafetySam. The monthly average temperature of 54.0 is 1.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 25th warmest December on record, tied with 1995. What is the average temperature in Arizona in January? Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 104 on the 6th and 30th to a low of 70 on the 23rd. The previous two occurrences were in 1984 & 2010. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. For the first time since 2010, September recorded more triple digit high temperatures (8) than August did (7). The average wind speed was 8.1 mph which is slightly below the average was 8.2 mph. Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers Almanac,said there wasnt much particularly interesting or new forecasted for the area this fall, with generally fair weather from September through October. The story is much different in the Catalina and Rincon mountains where between 4" and 10" of precipitation has been recorded so far this water year. For only the third time since 1910, no temperature records were set during the first three months of the year. Every one of them ended up being cooler than a year ago. Its the best time of year to visit if youre a fan of hiking, for example. The last March to record above normal rainfall was in 2004 when 1.12" was recorded. One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been warmer (55.7 or +2.3) and slightly drier (1.62" or -0.18") than normal. How do you feel about the upcoming milder, drier (especially drier than this last monsoon season, hoo boy) winter we might have? The airport two-day total of 0.74" ranks as the 3rd wettest New Year's Eve/Day on record. Some of our favorite, Youve Gotta See These 8 Spectacular Neighborhood Christmas Light Displays In Arizona, Even The Grinch Would Marvel At The Tlaquepaque Christmas Light Display In Arizona, With Over 35,000 Lights, Cox Family Lights Is One Of The Best Neighborhood Christmas Light Displays In Arizona, 4 Drive-Thru Christmas Lights Displays In Arizona The Whole Family Can Enjoy, 9 Easy Hikes You Can Enjoy In Arizona This Winter, Take An Enchanting Winter Walk Through Dozens Of Glowing Sculptures At The Desert Botanical Garden In Arizona, The 45-Minute Sleigh Ride At Snowy Mountain Stables In Arizona Takes You Through A Winter Wonderland, Tackle A Snow Tubing Hill At Sunrise Park Resort In Arizona This Year, Miyuki Miller / EyeEm Collection / Getty Images, Warren Faidley / The Image Bank Collection / Getty Images, Andrei Stoica / EyeEm Collection / Getty Images, Cathy Grieve / EyeEm Collection / Getty Images, Md Esharuzzaman Emu / iStock / Getty Images Plus Collection / Getty Images, James Randklev / Corbis Documentary Collection / Getty Images. The 30-year-old Musgrove is coming off the best season of his career and a stellar postseason run that included 7.0 dominant innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game 3 against the Mets in New York. The average yearly temperature of 54.3 is six-tenths of a degree BELOW normal and ranks as the 31st warmest on record through the end of February. Spring ended on a streak of 63 consecutive days with no rain being recorded at the International airport. (Weather station: Payson, USA). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration However, this ingredient in the forecast cannot be predicted until winter is in progress. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from a tenth of an inch to 1" with localized areas recording between 1" and 1.60". The Weather Companys primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. And for only the 9th time since 1895, rainfall was recorded on both New Year's Eve & Day with the most recent being in 2018-19 & 2016-17. Toggle navigation. The state's smoky skies were caused by a wildfire in Arizona, but the National Weather service said Monday's smoke and heat will be gone Tuesday. December climate data across southeast Arizona, Winter climate data across southeast Arizona. The monthly average temperature of 84.7 is just under 2 above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest September on record, tied with 2010. The only significant difference between this winter's outlook and the outlook for 2020-21 is that the chance of above-normal temperature is about 5-10% less than it was last winter, likely the result of somewhat higher above-normal temperature thresholds due to the change in long-term averages described above. The average yearly temperature, through the end of September, of 74.7 is 1.1 above normal and ranks as the 6th warmest on record, tied with 2016. Not all risky days will have rain/snow. The impacts from the cold plunge resulted in a multi-billion disaster, with Texas especially hard-hit. You can expect sleet, snow, and rain throughout the season. For the first Summer since 2010 & the sixth time since 1980, there were no record highs set or tied at the airport. Dry and warmer temperatures were on tap from the 17th to the 22nd. With a colder air mass in place, high temperatures were in the 50's from the 12th through 16th with daily lows in the mid 20's to mid 30's from the 13th through the 17th. Generally, cool areas of the country are expected to see significant snowfalls before the start of December, although the almanac predicts Thanksgiving could have good weather in most areas of the U.S. Christmas, on the other hand, could be unsettled with either rain or snow depending on your local temperatures, the almanac says. In a couple of words: its nice! It ended being the coolest Fall since 2006. Some of the storms produced heavy rain, especially on the 4th, 5th, 6th & 8th. According to the CPC, there is a 66% chance that La Nia conditions could last from November 2021 to January 2022. Could Arizona be in for another dry winter, leading to even worse drought conditions? No rain was recorded across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS. It begins just at the backend of Arizonas monsoon season, which officially comes to a close on Sept. 30. A record cool high temperature was set on the 24th with a high of 67 breaking the record of 68 from 1936 & 1978. We start off the new year here with the January 2022 forecast. Dry conditions prevailed from the 11th to the 14th before an upper level low moved across the area bringing scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail on the 15th & 16th. See more current weather Annual Weather Averages in Sedona Airport Sedona Airport is 29 miles from Arizona, so the actual climate in Arizona can vary a bit. According to the Farmers' Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year - though drier than average, too. The 1981-2010 climate normal period was used from the late 2011 to early 2021. Please Contact Us. No blocking means that we will continue to get the colder air out of the west in both regions of Southern California and Arizona, but it also means much drier conditions. Arizona Weather in Tucson Weather in Tucson in December 2022 Tucson Weather Forecast for December 2022 is based on statistical data. What is the chance of rain in Arizona in January? Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January,. Combined with last years August average temperature being 1.2 below normal, this is the first back-to-back Augusts since 2005-06 to be below normal. The Farmers' Almanac predicts winter will be wild in much of the United States, but pretty average in Utah. According to the Farmers Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year though drier than average, too. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The yearly rainfall total of 6.14" at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, ranks as the 15th driest January through October period on record. Coming off one of the WETTEST years on record in 2021 where the airport recorded 15.19", the outlook called for enhanced probabilities for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for the remainder of the year. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 103 on the 6th to a low of 65 on the 17th. There were five days that recorded freezing low temperatures at the airport which is up from the three that occurred in the previous winter but down five from the 1991-2020 normal period. Fetch the Scottsdale, Arizona daily observations from AerisWeather. Drought, wildfires, heat and monsoon storms: Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. The average yearly temperature is below normal for the calendar year through the end of March for the first time since 2017 and the fourth time this century (2001 & 2013). "We continue the remarkable drive toward a third consecutive La Nia winter, a relatively rare occurrence in our recorded history, with the last three-peat occurring from 1998-2000," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. While its critics say its weather predictions are essentially a flip of the coin, Geiger said in general he has been told the forecasts are about 80% accurate and are especially on target when it comes to winter forecasts. You can go traditional with it and check out some truly delightful Christmas towns in Arizona, or you can rent a cabin in the woods and forget about life for a while as you watch snow gently fall.